In previous posts I discussed how lenders were eager to originate more loans. These were not just for first time buyers getting into the market, many existing homeowners were enticed into taking out equity.

About 28% of the recent foreclosures in Bergen County seem to be a result of people cashing out their equity. Of the 135 homes that the foreclosure process was initiated that had judgments against them in excess of the average purchase price, the average price was $324,838 but the average judgment is $486,531. That's almost 50% more than what they paid for the house.

The chart below shows the number of these foreclosures grouped by the year in which they were purchased. The red line is the number of homes that were purchased in that year and the blue line shows the average difference between the judgment and the purchase price for the homes purchased that year.

What is disturbing is that of these 28% of recent foreclosures, not only do the borrowers need to worry that the property values are less than what they paid, they borrowed more than they actually paid! Lenders seemed to be willing to give out more than the purchase price, probably based on future inflated pricing that hasn't been realized? Don't be persuaded to think that the practice tapered off as much as the graph indicates. Since the Bergen County Clerk doesn't provide mortgage information online, like other NJ counties do, I had to go by foreclosure data. Since it takes time for the foreclosure process to even begin, the data is usually a few months delayed.

Just picture it, you struggled for years to build up a good sized down payment, you spent months searching for the right home for your family that was priced in a range you could qualify for and you have been slowly building equity in the property. But that hasn't been your main concern. While you did expect that your house would increase in value and that your fixed rate traditional loan over time would pay down your principal, your primary motivation was to have a nice home, with a good school system for your children. Then one day you look around and see what's going on. People were pulling money hand over fist out of the real estate market.

House prices are soaring and you're wondering "how can these people afford these houses". You start trying to figure out how much they are making, because you have a pretty good paying job and it took you a long time to save up and buy a house. Pretty soon you realize they're not making more money, they're just able to borrow more money. And it has nothing to do with their income or their credit in many cases. For some, they've cashed out equity at the time they were getting their first mortgage. In some cases they were able to borrow more than they property was currently worth.

You look at your situation and think, I'm in good shape, I have a good job, I already found the home I want, at a good price and after a few short years I'm sitting on more equity than I know what to do with. I want what some of these people are getting. You look at interest rates and say "well, I'd actually save money with a lower rate". Maybe you decide not to go too crazy but you're talking to loan officers and they're trying to get you to see your house as a cash machine.

Maybe that wasn't the case. Maybe you lost your job and needed money, there might have been an illness in the family that drained your resources or it was college time for the kids and you hadn't saved enough. There were so many reasons people decided to cash out equity. Some were unavoidable. Life has hiccups that can derail the best laid plans. But what's been happening is more than just that.

To take out equity in your home, you could either refinance your existing mortgage for an amount greater than what you currently owed to your first mortgage and pocket the difference, or take out a equity line of credit against the equity in the home. And loan officers would have no problem giving these to anyone. No income? No problem! Many lenders were willing to give you a loan without verifying income, just based on the equity in the home.

The problem with refinancing to cash out equity, or taking out a equity line of credit is that you were borrowing against equity that was about to come crashing down. The home prices were artificially inflated due to the amount of credit that was thrown out into the market. With more people able to get loans, home ownership was rising and people were buying houses like there was no tomorrow. Even though our government was concerned about artificially inflated house prices as early as 2001, borrowers and lenders kept on going as if the rapid increase in values was natural and going to continue indefinitely.

Pretty soon, the problems with giving out so many non prime loans started to show up. People were unable to keep up their payments and foreclosures started to rise. The lenders threw out more loans to try and keep house prices afloat but there's only so much that can be done. Eventually values started dropping.

Taking out equity through refinancing or a HELOC, isn't always a bad idea. If you can afford the payments and put the money to good use, it's something you need to do sometimes. But if you tried to take out equity, to get into the real estate market too late in the game, you might end up with two properties in foreclosure. For at least two people facing foreclosure on two properties each that seems to be the case. One purchased a home in 2002 for just over $200k which isn't too bad. The judgment though is over $400k. In 2006 they purchased another home for around $450k which also has a $400k judgment against it. 

Another buyer that purchased a home for around $170k in 2000, has a judgment against that home in excess of $500k as well as another home purchased in 2006 for $750k that has a $500k judgment as well.

Other things might have happened but it seems these people didn't use the equity in their homes wisely or got caught up in the hype at the tail end of the bubble.

If you took out a HELOC and started a side business and your monthly returns were greater than your payments you were in great shape. If you were able to purchase property at reasonable rates that you could rent out to cover your mortgages, you'd be fine too. But with the inflated prices those types of properties were hard to find.

If you need to take equity out of your home, learn from what's happened recently. Really think if you can afford to make the payments. Consider the type of loan you are getting and if the payments will stay the same. Don't take out equity unless you really need it. Your house isn't a credit card to purchase expensive cars, flat screen tv's etc. When people try to get you to take out a loan, remember, they make money when you do, so always look for other opinions and options as well.


Comments:

Great Post!

Hopefully times are changing and lenders will again only lend on what people can afford to pay rather than the value of the asset. There are so many people who purchased pre-Bubble that could not afford to buy the same property in 2004-2005. Unfortunately some of them took all the equity out and will be left with nothing.

The other sad story is people who are using their equity to pay their mortgage. They would be better selling for whatever they can get and living somewhere else. While that may be a short term method to sustainability for an emergency it is crazy to use it long term financial planning tool. But people did tons of crazy things during the bubble.

Posted by NJHH on June 20, 2008 at 04:44 PM EDT #

Thanks!


You're right, people that had a crisis that required extra money would have been better off selling and renting for a while.


The average judgment of the BC properties in foreclosure is around $412k. Assume the home price was a little more than that and add in insurance and taxes the average person in foreclosure was probably had a $3,400/mo mortgage payment. A think a fair assumption is that they could have rented something nice at $2,400/mo. If everyone didn't go crazy to cause the bubble, they could have spent the same amount in rent and put $1,000 away in a CD Ladder, 4% APR wasn't too hard to find at the time. At the end of 2 years, which is probably the average time they were current with their mortgages, they would have accumulated close to $25,000 including interest. If there wasn't a bubble, that $412k house would have been around $270k. They'd have a decent down payment for a house that price. With taxes and insurance probably a $2,500 payment.


Times are definitely changing. Lenders were able to give out so many loans because they were repackaging them and selling them to the secondary mortgage and credit derivatives market. Once those markets realized what a bad investment it was, they stopped buying. So lenders need to go back to normal qualifying guidelines because they don't have the cash anymore.

Posted by Tom on June 20, 2008 at 05:16 PM EDT #

hi tom!

Posted by njpatient on June 23, 2008 at 05:39 PM EDT #

Hi patient!

Posted by Tom on June 24, 2008 at 11:06 AM EDT #

Definitely a reflection of the economy as a whole. Not only housing prices drop but the collapse of the credit markets. Eventually we will ride out this problem, but if you have cash now there are some bargains to be had.

http://gewdir.com the bad credit loans blog

Posted by Dan on June 30, 2008 at 10:07 PM EDT #

Great info and post, I welcome you to join our real estate forum and advertise your real estate foreclosure information in the forum. We are featuring other agents that are focusing on foreclosure news!

Posted by San Diego Foreclosure Information on July 02, 2008 at 05:04 AM EDT #

Great Article!

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the VA's decision to allow 100% cash out refinancing. I know the VA program has had a pretty good track record for providing quality low risk products. Don't you think this development will eventually come up and bite them? I just hate to see such a great program go down in flames because they didn't listen to what everyone else already knew, 100% cash out refinances are extremely risky.

Posted by Brock on November 11, 2008 at 12:45 PM EST #

Brock,

I haven't really looked closely at what the VA has been doing. I looked a little more into what's going on with FHA and I'm getting the sense that other government programs have expanded to fill the gap when the subprime market collapsed.

Kind of like expansion tanks in your plumbing system. Hopefully they didn't overload the system but based on what we've seen so far it doesn't look like anyone knows what they are doing.

The VA might have set up the 100% financing program to help borrowers get out of bad loans into better ones and the 100% financing is necessary to account for declining property values. Otherwise most people might not be able to get the money they need to refinance.

If someone can use that to get into a better loan with lower payments it might not be that bad. If someone is refinancing to cash out equity and not putting that money to good use though, well... that could lead to trouble.

Posted by Tom on November 11, 2008 at 01:25 PM EST #

Good article....The same thing is happening in Arizona..I see houses that were bought for 200k 8 years ago that go into forelsoure for 500k because the owners sucked all the equity out of it a couple of years ago and now can't or won't make the payments as the house has gone down in value and they have altready pcokted the equity.

Another thing that happens out here is what is called "buy and bail"..Some folks paid too much for their homes 2 years ago so they buy anothet one at a lower price in this depreseed environment( while their credit is still good) and them walk away from the mortgage on their first houses.

This is the most aggravating part of the housing problems. The banks got their profits and bonuses when the wrote the loans two/three years ago, the home owners refinanced and sucked the equity out and now the tax payers are footing the bill for the bailout.

It is sickening..

And what about the appraisers that said the houses were worth X amount of money?

There is a loft complex in Scottsdale where 600 sq. ft. studios re-sold for $950k
and 2 years later they have been foreclosed and are on the market for 250k...The units were never worth 950k...There were a lot of fraudulent transactions where the appraiser, buyer and seller were in cahoots and ended up splitting the profits and walking away from the unit 12 months later... And guess who will bail out the bank?..The tax payer...

Posted by sirpatrick on January 08, 2009 at 08:10 PM EST #

Thanks, glad you liked it. I agree, it really is sickening. There are so many people that participated in this whole mess.

You might like my article on The housing market was a ponzi scheme.

Posted by Tom on January 09, 2009 at 06:38 PM EST #

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